چکیده (انگلیسی):

Calculation of expected outbreak size of a simple contagion on a known contact network is a common andimportant epidemiological task, and is typically carried out by computationally intensive simulation. Wedescribe an efficient exact method to calculate the expected outbreak size of a contagion on an outbreak-invariant network that is a directed and acyclic, allowing us to model all dynamically changing networkswhen contagion can only travel forward in time. We describe our algorithm and its use in pseudocode,as well as showing examples of its use on disease relevant, data-derived networks.© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).