چکیده (انگلیسی):

Dengue is one of the most important and wide-spread viral infections affecting human populations. Thelast few decades have seen a dramatic increase in the global burden of dengue, with the virus now beingendemic or near-endemic in over 100 countries world-wide. A recombinant tetravalent vaccine candidate(CYD-TDV) has recently completed Phase III clinical efficacy trials in South East Asia and Latin Americaand has been licensed for use in several countries. The trial results showed moderate-to-high efficaciesin protection against clinical symptoms and hospitalisation but with so far unknown effects on transmis-sion and infections per se. Model-based predictions about the vaccine’s short- or long-term impact on theburden of dengue are therefore subject to a considerable degree of uncertainty. Furthermore, differentimmune interactions between dengue’s serotypes have frequently been evoked by modelling studies tounderlie dengue’s oscillatory dynamics in disease incidence and serotype prevalence. Here we show howmodel assumptions regarding immune interactions in the form of antibody-dependent enhancement,temporary cross-immunity and the number of infections required to develop full immunity can signif-icantly affect the predicted outcome of a dengue vaccination campaign. Our results thus re-emphasisethe important gap in our current knowledge concerning the effects of previous exposure on subsequentdengue infections and further suggest that intervention impact studies should be critically evaluated bytheir underlying assumptions about serotype immune-interactions.© 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).