چکیده (انگلیسی):

We quantify outbreak risk after importations of Middle East respiratory syndrome outside the Arabian
Peninsula. Data from 31 importation events show strong statistical support for lower transmissibility
after early transmission generations. Our model projects the risk of
≥10, 100, and 500 transmissions as
11%, 2%, and 0.02%, and
≥1, 2, 3, and 4 generations as 23%, 14%, 0.9%, and 0.05%, respectively. Our results
suggest tempered risk of large, long-lasting outbreaks with appropriate control measures.