چکیده (انگلیسی):

Pertussis is a highly infectious respiratory disease that has been on the rise in many countries worldwideover the past several years. The drivers of this increase in pertussis incidence remain hotly debated,with a central and long-standing hypothesis that questions the ability of vaccines to eliminate pertussistransmission rather than simply modulate the severity of disease. In this paper, we present age-structuredcase notification data from all provinces of Thailand between 1981 and 2014, a period during whichvaccine uptake rose substantially, permitting an evaluation of the transmission impacts of vaccination.Our analyses demonstrate decreases in incidence across all ages with increased vaccine uptake – anobservation that is at odds with pertussis case notification data in a number of other countries. To explorewhether these observations are consistent with a rise in herd immunity and a reduction in bacterialtransmission, we analyze an age-structured model that incorporates contrasting hypotheses concerningthe immunological and transmission consequences of vaccines. Our results lead us to conclude that themost parsimonious explanation for the combined reduction in incidence and the shift to older age groupsin the Thailand data is vaccine-induced herd immunity.© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-NDlicense (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).