چکیده (انگلیسی):

Malaria is among the most important parasitic diseases, and is one
of the endemic diseases in Iran. This disease is often known as a disease related to climate
changes. Due to the health and economic burden of malaria and the location of Kerman province
in an area with high incidence of malaria, the present study aimed to evaluate the effects
of climatic factors on the incidence of this disease.
Material and methods: Data on the incidence of malaria in Kerman province was inquired from
Kerman and Jiroft Medical Universities and climatic variables were inquired from the meteorological
organization of Kerman. The data was analyzed monthly from 2000 to 2012. Variations
in incidence of malaria with climatic factors were assessed with negative binomial regression
model in STATA11software. In order to determine the delayed effects of meteorological variables
on malaria incidence, cross-correlation analysis was done with Minitab16.
Results: The most effective meteorological factor on the incidence of malaria was temperature.
As the mean, maximum, and minimum of monthly temperature increased, the incidence rate
raised significantly. The multivariate negative binomial regression model indicates that a 1 °C
increase in maximum temperature in a given month was related to a 15% and 19% increase
on malaria incidence on the same and subsequent month, respectively (p-value = 0.001).
Humidity and Rainfall were not significant in the adjusted model.
Conclusion: Temperature is among the effective climatic parameters on the incidence of malaria
which should be considered in planning for control and prevention of the disease.
© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of World Federation of Parasitologists.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).